NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service has released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook.
The updated outlook calls for 19-25 named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 7-11 will become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), including 3-6 major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).
An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).
Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4.
Current oceanic and atmospheric conditions that make an “extremely active” hurricane season possible are warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, reduced vertical wind shear, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
These conditions are expected to continue for the next several months.
For more information, the NOAA media release may be found at: https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-hurricane-season-possible-for-atlantic-basin